Saturday, January 31, 2009

State of the Freakwenter: Revenue Report

Since installing ads nearly a year ago, the Freakwenter's revenue account has accumulated $53.85. Based on calculations like those described in this previous post, the Freakwenter estimates that current earnings are something like 20 standard deviations above the mean (among blogs with similar traffic levels). It now appears likely that the revenue will someday cross the $100 mark, at which point Google is obligated to make the first payment, and at that time the Freakwenter may mail out dividents to Freakwent contributers. That is, IF Google pays up. Indeed, the Freakwenter will make no effort to prosecute if Google fails to pay, because the Freakwenter is aware that much of its revenue comes from the devious activities of rebellious readers, who regularly ignore the Freakwenter's repeated pleas to lead upstanding lives. Google most likely has algorithms to disqualify revenue that lies above several standard deviations over the mean. But if it happens that Google does not have such algorithms, and the Freakwenter receives this corrupt money, what should be done with it?

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

The Curious Incident of The Man in the Hallway

Waiting outside a locked door on the fifth floor, I took a seat on the carpet next to the men's restroom and proceeded to read some A-level maths. Presently a ordinary-looking middle-aged man ambled down the hall towards me. I pulled back my legs so he could pass. But rather than walk around me, he attempted to walk right through me. I tried to catch him as he fell, but he quickly said he was fine and went into the men's room. Now, whenever someone approaches me, I'll be sure to make some noise.

Monday, January 26, 2009

Who can we trust?

Dear Freakwenter,

Should I give any merit to Gregory Mankiw's economic ideas? As the former chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisors just before the economic collapse, isn't he responsible for developing and supporting failed policies?

Apart from the meticulous economic ideas that he occasionally voices, Mankiw's biggest service to humanity is his blog, which serves as a hub for the latest in economic commentary from a diverse group of economists in language that is at least moderately understandable for half of the general public.

But to get to the heart of your question, who can we trust? Let's take a look at a potential candidates. Alan Greenspan, once an economic icon, has admitted that his pre-turmoil understanding of our economy was dangerously misguided. The Obama campaign's widely respected right-hand economist, Austin Goolsbee, openly advocated the issuance of sub-prime mortgages as recently as March 29, 2007. Obama's Treasury secretary Timothy Geithner and current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke were both in excellent positions of power to institute regulations that may have moderated the crisis had they acted sooner. Martin Feldstein, considered one of the top ten economists in the world, has been serving for many years on the board of directors of AIG, the second major recipient of a Federal Reserve bailout. You get my waft: the failure of Mankiw to show Bush how to prevent the crisis is hardly a mark of intellectual inferiority. The financial morass is giving the reputations of all economists (with the possible exception of Dr. Doom) a good kick in the colon.

So, who can you trust? Hmmm... Got nothing. Take this one to the Lord in prayer.

Bulgaria + Riverdance =

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Obomba Watch

Within days of gaining control of the US military, Obama has become a child-eater. Whether he has as large an appetite for children as our last president remains to be seen.

How did he justify an air-strike on foreign soil with high risk of civilian casualties? Here are two possibilities:
  • He believed that this particular target was a legitimate threat to the US homeland, either immediate or in the distant future. But this doesn't sit right. If Obama believes that more intrusion into foreign lands increases our national security, then we have over-estimated his intelligence.
  • He wanted to set an early precedent to show conservative America that he is not the pro-Muslim-Obama-bin-Sama-Hussein-anti-Christ that they feared. With the blood of a few Muslim children in his hands, no one can accuse him of compromising American security for the sake of mere Muslims.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Mortgage forecast follow-up, and romance















Dear Freakwenter,

You recently noted that many predict that mortgage rates will bottom in June around 4.5%. If this happens, what is the explanation for the increased spread between the "Federal Funds Effective Rate' and the "30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Rate," shown in the chart above? What is preventing mortgage rates from dropping more?

The federal funds rate is a short-term interest rate, the rate by which banks lend to each other overnight. By contrast, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate is a long-term interest rate. The crucial difference between the two rates is that the first one is short-term and the second one is long-term.

What does the term-length of a loan have to do with its interest rate? When a bank makes 30-year fixed-rate loan at X%, they are betting that the interest rate in the next 30 years will generally not exceed X%; otherwise, they would keep their money in short-term investments until the rate rises to something much higher than X%. The fact that long term interest rates hover near 5% while the short-term rates approach 0% reflects the market's expectation that that long-term interest rates will return to a higher level in the future; the banks are holding back their money in short-term investments until this increase occurs.

In regular English, a woman who hesitates to marry a reasonably good man because she is holding out for her perfect someone might be perfectly content to fill in her waiting time by doing one-night stands with men that she could never marry.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Overlappinglish Partwo

See here for the original Overlappinglish charter. Unfortunately the third entry below does not quite follow the rules. I will call it Overlappinglish slang.

Abundance + dancer = abundancer: one who dances abundantly.

Mousetrap + trapezoid = mousetrapezoid: a trapezoid with a mousy shape.

Liquidity + idiot = liquidiot: one who keeps all their savings in cash instead of buying into high-yield investments. As in, "Don't be a liquidiot."

Clobber + bury = clobbury: murder by clobbering, followed by burial to cover up the evidence.

Nostril + trilogy = nostrilogy: the study of nostrils.

Woodchuck + chuckle = woodchuckle: the laugh of a woodchuck.

Sunday, January 11, 2009

For Love of Career


Before I entered 8th grade, I assumed that I would someday go into some kind of non-profit work. I was much more idealistic back then. I was going to devote my life to serving the poor, and possibly preaching a Christian Gospel (although some reservations about evangelism developed even before 8th grade). The particular form of service was irrelevant. I would labor in the fields or in an office and my life would have meaning and purpose. I would be consumed by work of cosmic significance. My descent (or ascent?) from idealism was gradual, and had to do with some mix of the following:
  • As my theology fell apart, the afterlife motive for doing the work of God diminished.
  • I observed that people are fundamentally selfish. With few exceptions, the religious and secular alike in America led very comfortable lives while giving only a token amount of their resources to charity. Many people followed the 10% rule, which may have been generous in some cases, but the very fact that they were following a rule rather than simply giving away "as much as possible" was evidence that even their giving was a selfish act, a purchase of spiritual or social insurance.
  • Identifying myself as a regular human, I came to view myself as fundamentally selfish.
  • It followed that all generousity was just an act.
  • Screw ethics. I'll just try to move on and enjoy life and try not to think too hard about it.
  • I couldn't stop thinking hard. Thinking is what I am.
  • Through lots of thinking I convinced myself that non-governmental charitable efforts are not-necessarily beneficial at all. The reasons for doubting the value of charity are many, but in the most cynical view, the world is already so overpopulated that nursing humanity along now will simply lead to a more cataclysmic mass-starvation when our delicate network of industrial farming and nuclear anti-proliferation treaties all falls apart.
So this was phase 1. As a selfish being, I didn't necessarily come across as selfish, because I was well aware of that being generous makes lots of sense as an investment to win friends and cooperation. So I was generous often with my friends, but not in an idealistic way. And I had lost faith in the non-profit sector to the extent that I stopped tithing.

Maybe now I'm in the middle of a phase 2, which begins with an observation that my concept of humans as fundamentally selfish is shaky, thanks to ambiguity in our concept of "self." Consider the following questions:
  • What am I? Surely I am more than a material body. I contain memories and plans, and I exist in a vast network of relationships. As a member of this network, my material body is in many ways irrelevant.
  • Where do I live? Inside my skull? In a particular spot in my brain?
  • What do I consist of? Molecules? Organs? Arms and legs? Neurons? Sure, all this and much more. How about this computer I'm typing on? It is an essential extension of my brain, just as much as my hand is an extension and part of who I am. Likewise, everything I interact with, including people, is part of who I am. When a close friend dies, part of me dies.
  • We are what we eat, but what we see, the tools we use, and the people we relate to.
  • Then what does it mean to be selfish? To the extent that we are all part of each other, me serving me is hardly a step removed from me serving you, and vice versa.
But the fact remains, I am selfish even in the traditional sense (which ignores the fact that other people are part of me). What has gone wrong? If other people are part of who I am, then there should be no need for this ridiculous intellectualization that I wallow in. If other people's needs are my needs, then my motive for helping other people should be implicit, self-evident, and unspoken. To some extent I already experience this implicit motive. Counselors might call it "empathy." There are moments, I am fairly certain, when I want to be there for friends, to offer support, wanting nothing in particular in return.

The problem is that my circle of empathy is not necessarily large. I don't care about the masses of people dying in other countries. I don't care about the poor people that I don't know personally. And I can't necessarily make much of a career just from caring about my friends. In this interconnected global economy, caring about a career seems to require caring about "the common good."

In summary, I'm going to go out on a shaky limb and casually propose the following diagnosis and treatment plan for lack of passion for any career. Diagnosis:
  • During crucial formative years, I came to see myself as fundamentally selfish.
  • This cynical view, even if partly true, needlessly became a self-fulfilling prophecy.
  • As I lost my idealism of caring for people on the other side of the world, I became a smaller person. I detached myself from broader humanity. I thought I was acknowledging reality, but I was creating reality.
  • I am left with only an extremely weak concern for the common good, and hence most careers feel empty.
Treatment:
  • I must jumpstart my relationship with broader humanity, so that my identity grows to include relationships with people I don't even know. Once those relationships are established, I will spontaneously care about the common good and a passion for a career will come out of that. A rebirth of sorts.
  • To jumpstart things, I must start volunteering locally to help people, and I should start donating money, even if it's a small amount, to some kind of charity, even if it's not necessarily a great charity.

Looking back at all of the above, I feel a bit skeptical, as usual, but maybe I'll give it a try.

Friday, January 09, 2009

Housing Forecast

In the next several months, the number of houses in the U.S. will remain relatively constant. Few houses will be destroyed, and even fewer will be built. Rarely has history seen such a stable housing environment.

Rumors abound that 30-year mortgage rates may bottom out as low as 4.5% in June 09, when the Federal Reserve expects to finish buying about $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities. So far, the Federal Reserve has bought at least $10 billion in securities under this program, and long-term interest rates are already falling.

Now is a good time to start looking for a house to buy. Housing prices will continue to fall precipitously through March 15, and then will begin a quick recovery. But even as housing prices rise, long-term interest rates will continue to fall through at least June. For an ideal mix of moderate home prices and low interest rates, aim to seal a house deal near the end of April.

For the Women

Thursday, January 08, 2009

How Depression Led Me to God

Why do I feel pain? One obvious answer is that I feel pain so that I am motivated to improve my life. A study -- whose reference I have lost -- on happiness showed that people who are extremely happy tend to be under-achievers, at least going by the [possibly shallow] measures of income or career success. By contrast, driven people are driven by a persistent (if gentle) desire to improve their imperfect lives. All this should come as no surprise for anyone accustomed to seeing things through Darwinian eyes. People who are content regardless of circumstances may fail to act in times of danger and get naturally de-selected.

But the question remains, and becomes clearer with emphasis: Why do I FEEL pain? Darwin makes it clear that we need pain to survive, but that does not explain why we should feel it. For that matter, why should I feel anything at all? The question is useless in that it is no more answerable than "Why do I exist."

Imagining a world without pain is a stupid academic exercise. We have built machines that do the jobs of living people, and we see all the moving parts of the machines, and then we start making analogies. People have moving parts, so people are like machines. There is the analogy, but surely machines don't feel! Then why should people feel? I feel and I can't help it and it hurts. God is with me, but God does not care about how I feel.

For the Men

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

The End of History

The intellectual Francis Fukuyama argued in a famous 1989 essay that political ideology all around the world is slowly but irreversibly marching toward the American standard of democracy combined with free market capitalism. As you would expect from a bored man of inappropriately high intelligence, most of the argument is a gooey progression of pithy philosophical parsage forced through sentences whose subjects are not easily confused with their predicate nomnitives. But I especially like his final paragraph, where he suddenly stops talking about history and instead focuses on how history feels:
The end of history will be a very sad time. The struggle for recognition, the willingness to risk one's life for a purely abstract goal, the worldwide ideological struggle that called forth daring, courage, imagination, and idealism, will be replaced by economic calculation, the endless solving of technical problems, environmental concerns, and the satisfaction of sophisticated consumer demands. In the post-historical period there will be neither art nor philosophy, just the perpetual caretaking of the museum of human history. I can feel in myself, and see in others around me, a powerful nostalgia for the time when history existed. Such nostalgia, in fact, will continue to fuel competition and conflict even in the post-historical world for some time to come. Even though I recognize its inevitability, I have the most ambivalent feelings for the civilization that has been created in Europe since 1945, with its north Atlantic and Asian offshoots. Perhaps this very prospect of centuries of boredom at the end of history will serve to get history started once again.

Stereotypical Girl Seeks Fun-Loving Guy

I never thought I'd be doing this online but my friends forced me to try it so here goes! I'm a down-to-earth, easygoing, optimistic girl who's looking for a guy that can make me laugh. A sense of humor is so important. Honestly. What good is a day without laughter? Life is meant to be enjoyed. I love to laugh. My friends made a list of words that best describe me: happy, warm, over achiever, creative, resourceful, high-energy, fun, silly, thoughtful, sunny, positive, and passionate. I like to travel! I believe in living life to its fullest. I'm always up for going out with friends, but I also know how to relax at home. I like to watch movies, and I watch more TV than I'd like to admit. I'm looking for a partner in crime, someone who can show me new restaurants in the city and treat me like a lady.

A Message to Obama

As I was walking to my place of lofty employment this morning, I passed near the hotel where Obama is rumored to be staying. Security had set up a barricade blocking off 16th street, forming a T. A woman in her late 50's came scurrying out of the traffic and approached a security agent, and handed him a regular standard white envelope. "It's a message to Obama," she announced. Then she scurried back to her car, which she had left in the middle of the street, facing the T. The security man turned back to his post with a disheveled shrug.

Tuesday, January 06, 2009

A Worthy U Tube Response

Many of Youtube's greatest hits are followed by imitations and spoofs, most of which are pretty lame compared to the original. Consider, for example, "Charlie bit my finger" and its variants.

Here is a possible exception to this rule, and one that transcends all language barriers. First watch this. Then watch this.